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Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

The monthly US jobs release that whipsaws markets.

Live data

Non-Farm Payrolls · Monthly change (thousands)

Non-Farm Payrolls · Monthly change (thousands)
172-81.7%
Latest: 2026-05-01
Data: FRED
59 obs
-1561193936689422021-07-012023-12-012026-05-01

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Updated daily.

TL;DR

NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the monthly US jobs report — how many jobs the economy added or lost, excluding farming. It's released the first Friday of every month at 8:30 ET and is one of the most volatile market events.

What the report contains

Three numbers move the market most.

  • Headline NFP — net jobs added/lost (consensus typically: 100K–300K in expansion)
  • Unemployment rate — % of labour force without a job actively seeking one
  • Average hourly earnings — wage growth, key input to inflation outlook
  • Labour force participation rate — % of working-age population working or seeking work

Why it moves markets so much

NFP is the single most data-rich monthly read on the US economy. It informs:

  • Fed policy path — strong jobs reduce odds of cuts
  • Inflation outlook — wage growth feeds into core inflation
  • Equity valuations — earnings growth ultimately depends on jobs
  • Currency strength — strong jobs typically support the dollar

Revisions matter

Each NFP comes with revisions to the previous two months. Sometimes a 'strong' headline is offset by big downward revisions to prior months. Always read revisions alongside the new number.

Worked example

A surprise NFP miss

Consensus: +185K. Actual: +75K. Unemployment ticks up from 4.1% to 4.3%.

  1. 1Headline+75K (vs +185K expected)
  2. 2Unemployment4.3% (vs 4.1%)
  3. 3Prior-month revision−45K
  4. 4Wage growth0.2% MoM (cooler)
  5. 5DXY−0.9%
  6. 62Y yield−18bp
  7. 7Gold+1.4%
Takeaway

A weak NFP shifts the Fed path dovish — dollar sells off, yields drop, gold catches a bid. Equities can rally (Fed cuts incoming) or sell (economy weakening) depending on the cycle.

Common mistakes

What to avoid

  • !Trading the first 30 seconds — spreads gap, fills are unreliable
  • !Ignoring revisions — they tell you whether the recent trend was stronger or weaker than reported
  • !Treating one print as a regime change — Fed needs a string of data points
  • !Overlooking wage growth — it's often the actual market mover, not the headline
Self-check

Test yourself

Q1When is NFP released?+

First Friday of every month at 8:30 ET.

Q2Why might equities rally on a weak NFP?+

Weak jobs increase odds of Fed rate cuts, which lower discount rates and lift valuations.

Keep reading

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