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Macroeconomicsintermediate

Federal Reserve and interest rates

How the Fed sets policy — and why every asset class watches.

Live data

Effective Federal Funds Rate

Effective Federal Funds Rate
3.63%+4437.5%
Latest: 2026-05-01
Data: FRED
60 obs
0.081.392.714.025.332021-06-012023-12-012026-05-01

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Updated daily.

TL;DR

The Federal Reserve sets short-term US interest rates, which cascade through every asset class globally. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets 8 times a year — these are the most-watched days on the trading calendar.

What the Fed actually sets

The Fed sets the federal funds rate target — the rate banks charge each other overnight. Every other rate in the economy (mortgages, credit cards, business loans, bond yields) is anchored to it.

The dual mandate

The Fed has two legal objectives, which sometimes conflict.

  • Maximum employment — low unemployment, strong labour market
  • Price stability — typically interpreted as ~2% PCE inflation
  • When inflation is high and unemployment is rising, the Fed must choose which to prioritise

Tools beyond rate cuts/hikes

Rate policy is the visible tool. Several others exist.

  • Forward guidance — telling markets what the Fed plans to do
  • Quantitative tightening (QT) — letting the balance sheet shrink
  • Quantitative easing (QE) — buying bonds to push down long-end yields (used in crises)
  • Standing repo facility — emergency liquidity tap for banks
Worked example

Anatomy of an FOMC day

FOMC meeting day. Statement at 14:00 ET, press conference at 14:30 ET.

  1. 1Pre-statementMarkets price 95% probability of a 25bp cut
  2. 214:00 statement25bp cut delivered, but dot plot raised for 2026
  3. 3Immediate reaction2Y yield +8bp, DXY +0.4%, gold −0.6%
  4. 414:30 press confPowell says 'further cuts not assured'
  5. 5Post-confS&P down 1.2%, 10Y yield up 12bp
Takeaway

The market trades the difference between expectations and reality, then trades again on the press conference tone. FOMC days have two distinct windows.

Common mistakes

What to avoid

  • !Trading FOMC pre-decision without knowing what's priced in — Fed Funds futures show the consensus
  • !Selling immediately on a hawkish statement and missing the press conference reversal
  • !Ignoring the dot plot — it shows where Fed officials think rates will be in 1–3 years
  • !Treating every meeting as 'live' — most meetings the decision is fully priced in
Self-check

Test yourself

Q1What is the Fed's dual mandate?+

Maximum employment and price stability (around 2% inflation).

Q2What does the Fed Funds futures market price?+

Probability of rate changes at upcoming FOMC meetings — the market's consensus.

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